The STAR-ProBio project aims to identify and mitigate the risks of negative Land Use Change (LUC) effects associated with the production routes of biobased products. This report details the initial steps in this process which were firstly to assess the status quo and key findings of existing approaches to quantify GHG emissions due to dLUC (direct Land Use Change) and iLUC (indirect Land Use Change) in order to identify, categorise and structure the key drivers and parameters for future strategies to reduce iLUC risks in a developing bioeconomy. The capacity of existing models to cover bio-based materials was then assessed, and links between the key drivers for iLUC and standardisation work related to the sustainability of biofuels and biomaterials were also identified. The outcome of this research has been used to identify specific risk factors that control land expansion (intensive margin, land suitability, co-products, demand elasticity, export – trade elasticity, trade share, supply elasticity) and establish the initial outline of a conceptual model to account for iLUC using a risk-based approach that will be developed further within the STAR-ProBio project.
